Most federal employees face a 0% pay raise in 2027, while some law enforcement personnel could see increases of 3.8% or roughly 6.7%, according to FedSmith.
The split would leave a wide gap between rank-and-file General Schedule (GS) employees and targeted law enforcement groups. The November midterm elections could also shape federal pay, benefits and the risk of another shutdown.
Key Facts
- Most federal employees: A 0% across-the-board raise in 2027, a pay freeze.
- Some law enforcement staff: Potential increases of 3.8% or roughly 6.7%, depending on the group, per FedSmith.
- Not final: The figures reflect current projections and proposals, and pay decisions can change as the process moves forward.
- Midterm elections: FedSmith reports the outcome could affect future pay decisions, federal benefits and the likelihood of funding lapses.
What It Means For You
If you are a GS or wage grade employee outside the targeted law enforcement categories, a freeze would mean no change to your base pay or locality pay in January 2027. Rising costs would erode purchasing power, and your TSP contributions and high-3 average salary would not benefit from a raise.
Law enforcement employees could see a different outcome. A 3.8% increase on a $90,000 salary would add roughly $3,420 a year. A 6.7% increase would add about $6,030. Which employees qualify, and for which figure, depends on how the proposals are finalized.
Run your own numbers with the federal pay raise calculator to see how a 0%, 3.8% or 6.7% adjustment would change your salary.
Midterms and Shutdown Risk
FedSmith's analysis ties the pay outlook to the November 2026 midterm elections. Control of Congress could influence pay legislation, benefit changes and funding negotiations. Fiscal year 2027 begins Oct. 1, 2026, just weeks before the election. That timing raises the possibility of funding disputes and a lapse in appropriations.
Federal employees have seen how shutdowns affect paychecks, furloughs and agency operations. Readers should watch for continuing resolution and appropriations developments this fall.
What To Watch
- Final pay decisions from the White House and Congress
- Any legislation targeting law enforcement pay
- Appropriations action before the Oct. 1 deadline
- Midterm results on Nov. 3
GovWire.org will update this story as the 2027 pay figures are finalized.
Source: FedSmith