A federal employee earning $100,000 would take home $6,700 less in 2027 under a freeze than a colleague in a targeted law enforcement group would get at the high end of the projected range. That's $558 a month, and it doesn't go away. Raises are percentages applied to a base, so the gap carries into every later paycheck, into TSP contributions, and into the high-3 average that sets a retirement annuity. Over ten years, with identical raises afterward, it comes to at least $67,000.
The 2027 numbers are projections and proposals, not law. Most General Schedule and wage grade employees are looking at 0%. Some law enforcement groups are looking at 3.8%, others at roughly 6.7%, according to FedSmith. Who makes that split, and who can change it, matters more than any single number.
By the Numbers
- 0%: the projected across-the-board raise for most civilian employees in January 2027
- 3.8% and roughly 6.7%: the projected increases for certain law enforcement groups
- $3,800 / $6,700: the annual difference between a freeze and each law enforcement figure on a $100,000 salary
- $558 a month: what the 6.7% gap is worth on that same salary
- $2,211 a year: the FERS annuity difference for a 30-year retiree whose high-3 is $7,370 higher (the worked example below)
- Nov. 3, 2026: midterm election day, five weeks after the Sept. 30 end of the fiscal year
How It Works
Federal civilian pay adjustments run on the Federal Employees Pay Comparability Act of 1990 (FEPCA), codified mainly at 5 U.S.C. 5303 and 5304. The statute sets a default formula: the across-the-board base raise tracks the Employment Cost Index for private-sector wages and salaries, minus half a percentage point. Locality pay is a separate layer. The President's Pay Agent builds it from comparisons of federal and non-federal pay in each area, with advice from the Federal Salary Council.
The formula is a default, not a guarantee. If the President decides a national emergency or serious economic conditions make the formula amount inappropriate, he can send Congress an alternative pay plan. The deadline is August 31 of the year before the raise takes effect. Presidents of both parties have used that authority routinely. The plan can set different adjustments for different pay systems, and that's the mechanism that makes a split like this possible: 0% for the General Schedule, higher figures for designated law enforcement groups.
If Congress does nothing, the alternative plan takes effect, normally in the first pay period of January. Congress can override it with legislation, usually through an appropriations bill or the NDAA. That takes votes, and in recent years it has rarely happened.
Three things sit outside the across-the-board raise:
- Within-grade (step) increases under 5 U.S.C. 5335 continue on their normal schedule. A freeze doesn't stop them.
- Promotions still move you up the pay table.
- Locality percentages are set separately from the base adjustment. A 0% raise means your pay table doesn't move. It doesn't mean your locality area can't be redefined later.
The Federal Wage System works differently. Wage grade pay comes from local prevailing-wage surveys, but appropriations language has often capped those increases at the GS raise in the area. So a freeze can reach wage grade pay indirectly.
A Worked Example
Take two federal employees, each earning $110,000 in base plus locality pay in December 2026. Dana is a GS-12 program analyst. Marcus is in a law enforcement group covered by the higher adjustment. Everything else about them is the same.
Step 1: January 2027 pay.
| Scenario | Raise | New salary | Annual change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freeze (Dana) | 0% | $110,000 | $0 |
| Lower law enforcement figure | 3.8% | $114,180 | +$4,180 |
| Higher law enforcement figure | ~6.7% | $117,370 | +$7,370 |
At the high end, Marcus takes home about $283 more per biweekly paycheck before taxes ($7,370 ÷ 26). At 3.8%, it's about $161.
Step 2: TSP. Both are FERS employees contributing 5%, and the agency matches the full 5% (1% automatic plus 4% match). On the extra $7,370, that's $368.50 from Marcus and $368.50 from the agency. Marcus gets $737 more going into his TSP every year than Dana does. Before earnings, that's $7,370 over a decade from this one raise.
Step 3: Retirement. Say both retire after 30 years under FERS with the standard 1% multiplier, and the 2027 difference is still in their high-3 averages. Dana's annuity is 30% of her high-3. Marcus's high-3 is $7,370 higher, so his annuity is 0.30 × $7,370 = $2,211 more per year, about $184 a month. Over 25 years of retirement, that's $55,275 before COLAs.
That overstates things a little for a real law enforcement officer, who typically has different retirement rules and may see later raises that narrow or widen the gap. The direction and rough size hold.
Step 4: Inflation. A freeze isn't a pay cut, but it works like one. If prices rise 3% in 2027 (an illustrative assumption, not a forecast), Dana's $110,000 buys what $106,800 buys today. That's about $3,200 of purchasing power gone.
Who Is Affected, and by How Much
GS employees outside targeted groups. The 0% case. Base and locality pay stay flat in January. Step increases still arrive on schedule, running roughly 3% between steps, so someone due for a WGI sees real movement. Someone at step 10 sees none.
Law enforcement groups with the higher adjustment. FedSmith reports increases of 3.8% for some and roughly 6.7% for others, depending on the group. On a $100,000 salary, that's $3,800 or $6,700 a year. Check which pay system and category you're in. The mechanism above is how the split gets made, but which positions land in which bucket is something to confirm against the actual pay plan once it's final.
Wage grade employees. Expect the practical outcome to track the GS result in your area, subject to local survey results and appropriations language.
Military. Separate system. Basic pay raises under 37 U.S.C. 1009 follow the ECI formula by statute unless Congress sets a different number. A civilian freeze doesn't automatically freeze military pay. Don't assume the two move together.
Retirees. Annuity COLAs come from CPI-W, not the pay raise. CSRS retirees get the full CPI-W increase. FERS retirees get the full increase if it's 2% or less, a flat 2% if it's between 2% and 3%, and CPI minus 1 point above 3%. A civilian pay freeze has no direct effect on them.
Future retirees. This is where a freeze hurts quietly. A raise skipped now lowers your eventual high-3 unless later raises make it up, and in a percentage-based system you don't make up the base you didn't get.
How to Estimate Your Own
Plug your current salary into the federal pay raise calculator and run 0%, 3.8%, and 6.7%. Use your own base-plus-locality number, not a table figure, and compare your biweekly gross across scenarios. Then multiply the annual dollar difference by your FERS multiplier (1% per year of service, or 1.1% if you retire at 62 or later with 20 years) and your expected years of service. That gives you the annuity effect in a minute or two. For the rough annual TSP effect, take the dollar raise and multiply by your own contribution rate plus the 5% agency contribution.
FAQ
Is the 2027 freeze final? No. The figures are projections and proposals. The President's alternative pay plan is due by August 31, 2026, and Congress can change the outcome through legislation before the raise would take effect in January.
Can Congress override a freeze? Yes, through an appropriations bill or other legislation setting a different raise. It takes affirmative action, though. Without it, the alternative plan takes effect.
Does a freeze stop my step increases? No. Within-grade increases under 5 U.S.C. 5335 are separate from the annual adjustment and continue on their normal waiting periods.
How do the midterms matter? The elections are Nov. 3, 2026, but the new Congress doesn't take office until January 2027. Fiscal 2027 funding is due Sept. 30, before the election, so shutdown risk comes first. If appropriations lapse, federal employees get back pay under the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019, but only after the shutdown ends. FedSmith reports the outcome could also shape future pay decisions and benefits.
Will a freeze lower my annuity? Not directly. Your annuity is based on your high-3 average salary. A freeze means your high-3 doesn't get the bump a raise would have given it.
Bottom Line
A freeze isn't a pay cut, but it's a real cost, and it compounds. On a $100,000 salary, the distance between 0% and 6.7% is $6,700 in year one, about $2,000 a year in lost annuity for a 30-year FERS retiree, and thousands more in TSP. None of it is locked in yet. The alternative pay plan lands by Aug. 31, appropriations are due Sept. 30, and the election is Nov. 3. Run your own numbers now and watch the August plan.